It’s interesting to understand the Deal or No Deal game strategy from the point of view of the founders of the Deal or No Deal. Read this article to understand the deal or no deal game theory and optimal strategy for playing Deal or No Deal.
Deal or No Deal Game – basic strategy
The basic strategy for a player is to maximize the expected value of the prize. Each point of the game, in which the banker makes an offer, a deal or no deal player may choose to maximize the expected value of the offer if it is above the average of cases opened, and decreases when it is smaller. However, the banker ‘s deals almost never exceeds the average of the unopened cases. Therefore, as a player if you choose the strategy game it would be boring as you would always decline offers and continue to open boxes till the banker offers you a higher deal than the average of the unopened boxes. It is amazing how the deceptively simple concept of the deal or no deal game has become so popular across the world.
Role of Risk Tolerance & Theory of Utility of Money in Deal or No Deal Game
The deal or no deal game gets interesting when other strategies involving optimization of parameters beyond the expected value. A player who declines the banker is taking the risk that he may win an amount less than what was being offered by the banker. The risk tolerance level varies from people to people. For instance, if a player is offered the choice between getting £100,000 against taking an even chance of winning either $1 or £250,000 most players would accept the £100,000. This is despite the fact that if the player’s strategy was simply to maximize the expected value he should reject the offer. This is due to the fact that people are logical and maximize utility of money and not the expected value. Also it is important to note that the utility of money diminishes as a player wins more. For example the utility of the first £100,000 is worth much more than the next £200,000 won.
Deal or No Deal is as simple as it can get. But due to the immense popularity of the deal or no deal TV game and deal or no deal online game, it has attracted attention of researchers, statisticians and economists. This is an ideal case to study the act of decision making under risk. And it is an excellent example of the application of utility theory. A team of 84 economists played (in 2004) the scaled-down version of the deal or no deal game and compared the results with the expected utility theory hypothesis. This study generated a great deal of media interest and front page news articles even in the likes of The Wall Street Journal.
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